Promotion League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Schaffhausen at 66%, the draw at 19% and YF Juventus at 15%, from expected goals of 2.21 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Schaffhausen have 4 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), YF Juventus 4 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 72%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 61% and 72%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 2.21 for FC Schaffhausen and 0.97 for YF Juventus. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schaffhausen | 5 | 80% | 40% | 60% |
| YF Juventus | 5 | 80% | 60% | 60% |
More: FC Schaffhausen season stats · YF Juventus season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.