Super Liga · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super Liga average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Dunajska Streda at 36%, the draw at 24% and Slovan Bratislava at 40%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.61.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 62% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 38% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 54% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Dunajska Streda 2.62, draw 3.50, Slovan Bratislava 2.38.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dunajska Streda have 3 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), Slovan Bratislava 5 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 61% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Dunajska Streda and 1.61 for Slovan Bratislava. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunajska Streda | 5 | 60% | 40% | 40% |
| Slovan Bratislava | 5 | 100% | 40% | 40% |
More: Dunajska Streda season stats · Slovan Bratislava season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.