NIFL Premiership · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NIFL Premiership average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Coleraine FC at 65%, the draw at 20% and Crusaders FC at 16%, from expected goals of 2.15 and 0.96.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 66% | 60% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 34% | 40% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 51% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Coleraine FC 1.14, draw 7.00, Crusaders FC 13.00.
The league sets the starting point. NIFL Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Coleraine FC have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 1 at home), Crusaders FC 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 13 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 54%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.15 for Coleraine FC and 0.96 for Crusaders FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coleraine FC | 4 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Crusaders FC | 4 | 100% | 25% | 100% |
More: Coleraine FC season stats · Crusaders FC season stats · NIFL Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.