ÖFB Cup · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The ÖFB Cup average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Austria Salzburg at 56%, the draw at 21% and First Vienna at 23%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 1.28.
The league sets the starting point. ÖFB Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Austria Salzburg have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), First Vienna 3 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Austria Salzburg and 1.28 for First Vienna. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Salzburg | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| First Vienna | 3 | 100% | 100% | 67% |
More: Austria Salzburg season stats · First Vienna season stats · ÖFB Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.