Amical Saint-Prex v Lugano II — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Promotion League · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Amical Saint-Prex at 59%, the draw at 19% and Lugano II at 22%, from expected goals of 2.51 and 1.51.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Amical Saint-Prex have 4 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), Lugano II 5 in 5 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 70% and 75%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 70% and 67%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 2.51 for Amical Saint-Prex and 1.51 for Lugano II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Amical Saint-Prex season stats · Lugano II season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.