1. Division · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts AB Copenhagen at 35%, the draw at 26% and Aalborg at 39%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.39.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 57% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 43% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 57% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: AB Copenhagen 2.25, draw 3.50, Aalborg 2.75.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AB Copenhagen have 3 in 6 this season (0 of 2 at home), Aalborg 3 in 6 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.31 for AB Copenhagen and 1.39 for Aalborg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AB Copenhagen | 6 | 50% | 17% | 67% |
| Aalborg | 6 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: AB Copenhagen season stats · Aalborg season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.