Copa do Brasil · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Copa do Brasil average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Gremio at 44%, the draw at 26% and Internacional at 30%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. Copa do Brasil has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gremio have 10 in 22 this season (5 of 11 at home), Internacional 8 in 22 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.42 for Gremio and 1.13 for Internacional. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 22 | 45% | 14% | 59% |
| Internacional | 22 | 36% | 23% | 55% |
More: Gremio season stats · Internacional season stats · Copa do Brasil table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.