FAI Cup · Friday, 4 September 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The FAI Cup average is 48%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Drogheda United at 40%, the draw at 27% and Galway United at 33%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. FAI Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Drogheda United have 15 in 29 this season (6 of 15 at home), Galway United 14 in 28 (6 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 36%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.32 for Drogheda United and 1.17 for Galway United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United | 29 | 52% | 34% | 59% |
| Galway United | 28 | 50% | 32% | 68% |
More: Drogheda United season stats · Galway United season stats · FAI Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.