Czech Liga · Wednesday, 2 September 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Czech Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Zbrojovka Brno at 44%, the draw at 25% and Hradec Králové at 31%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.23.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 50% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 50% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 51% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.30, draw 3.30, Hradec Králové 2.80.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zbrojovka Brno have 2 in 5 this season (2 of 3 at home), Hradec Králové 2 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.23 for Hradec Králové. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zbrojovka Brno | 5 | 40% | 40% | 60% |
| Hradec Králové | 4 | 50% | 0% | 50% |
More: Zbrojovka Brno season stats · Hradec Králové season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.