DFB Pokal · Wednesday, 2 September 2026 · 19:45. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The DFB Pokal average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | no pick |
The result model puts VfL Osnabrück at 11%, the draw at 14% and Bayern München at 75%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 2.94.
The league sets the starting point. DFB Pokal has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. VfL Osnabrück have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Bayern München 32 in 34 (15 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 80%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 77%, from expected goals of 1.1 for VfL Osnabrück and 2.94 for Bayern München. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabrück | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| Bayern München | 34 | 94% | 76% | 65% |
More: VfL Osnabrück season stats · Bayern München season stats · DFB Pokal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.