Greek Cup · Wednesday, 2 September 2026 · 20:15. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Greek Cup average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | no pick |
The result model puts PAOK at 86%, the draw at 10% and OFI at 4%, from expected goals of 2.88 and 0.48.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PAOK have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), OFI 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 2.88 for PAOK and 0.48 for OFI. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: PAOK season stats · OFI season stats · Greek Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.