Svenska Cupen · Wednesday, 2 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Svenska Cupen average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Olympic at 62%, the draw at 19% and IFK Goteborg at 20%, from expected goals of 2.38 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. Svenska Cupen has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Olympic have 0 in 0 this season, IFK Goteborg 10 in 17 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 2.38 for Olympic and 1.29 for IFK Goteborg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympic | 0 | — | — | — |
| IFK Goteborg | 17 | 59% | 41% | 59% |
More: IFK Goteborg season stats · Svenska Cupen table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.