Liga Pro · Wednesday, 2 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Macara at 65%, the draw at 23% and Manta FC at 12%, from expected goals of 1.68 and 0.55.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 43% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 57% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 49% | +8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Macara 1.40, draw 4.10, Manta FC 7.50.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Macara have 13 in 27 this season (7 of 13 at home), Manta FC 7 in 27 (5 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 36%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.68 for Macara and 0.55 for Manta FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Macara season stats · Manta FC season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.