Czech Liga · Wednesday, 2 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 39% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Czech Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Bohemians 1905 at 33%, the draw at 30% and FK Jablonec at 37%, from expected goals of 0.98 and 1.06.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 39% | -10% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 61% | +10% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | 53% | 46% | -8% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bohemians 1905 2.50, draw 3.25, FK Jablonec 2.55.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bohemians 1905 have 2 in 4 this season (0 of 1 at home), FK Jablonec 1 in 4 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 43% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 14%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 0.98 for Bohemians 1905 and 1.06 for FK Jablonec. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians 1905 | 4 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| FK Jablonec | 4 | 25% | 0% | 25% |
More: Bohemians 1905 season stats · FK Jablonec season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.