Premier League · Wednesday, 2 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 32% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 34%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts Abu Qair Semad at 38%, the draw at 35% and Al Ittihad at 28%, from expected goals of 0.9 and 0.73.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 32% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 72% | 68% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.62 | 35% | 44% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Abu Qair Semad 3.00, draw 2.62, Al Ittihad 2.45.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Abu Qair Semad have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Al Ittihad 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 34%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 32% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 23%, from expected goals of 0.9 for Abu Qair Semad and 0.73 for Al Ittihad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abu Qair Semad | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Al Ittihad | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Al Ittihad season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.