Greek Cup · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 16:00. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–2). We made no pick on this game before kick-off; our pre-match rating was 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | no pick |
The result model puts Volos NFC at 40%, the draw at 28% and Kalamata at 32%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. Greek Cup has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Volos NFC have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Kalamata 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Volos NFC and 1.1 for Kalamata. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volos NFC | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| Kalamata | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Volos NFC season stats · Greek Cup table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.