Kvindeligaen (W) · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 18:00. Final score 4–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Nordsjælland W at 73%, the draw at 14% and KoldingQ W at 13%, from expected goals of 3.16 and 1.38.
The league sets the starting point. Kvindeligaen (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nordsjælland W have 2 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), KoldingQ W 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 58% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 83%, from expected goals of 3.16 for Nordsjælland W and 1.38 for KoldingQ W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordsjælland W | 4 | 50% | 50% | 75% |
| KoldingQ W | 4 | 100% | 100% | 75% |
More: Nordsjælland W season stats · KoldingQ W season stats · Kvindeligaen (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.