Toppserien (W) · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 16:30. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 72% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 56% | No |
The result model puts LSK Kvinner W at 74%, the draw at 14% and Bodø / Glimt W at 12%, from expected goals of 3.07 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. LSK Kvinner W have 9 in 13 this season (7 of 7 at home), Bodø / Glimt W 11 in 13 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 70%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 68% and 70%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 3.07 for LSK Kvinner W and 1.25 for Bodø / Glimt W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSK Kvinner W | 13 | 69% | 38% | 54% |
| Bodø / Glimt W | 13 | 85% | 62% | 62% |
More: LSK Kvinner W season stats · Bodø / Glimt W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.