Premier League · Tuesday, 1 September 2026 · 15:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 68% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 60% | No |
The result model puts Ghazl El Mehalla at 27%, the draw at 31% and Enppi at 42%, from expected goals of 0.84 and 1.11.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.75 | 25% | 32% | +7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.25 | 75% | 68% | -7% |
| Both teams to score | 3.00 | 31% | 40% | +9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Ghazl El Mehalla 2.30, draw 2.60, Enppi 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ghazl El Mehalla have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Enppi 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 26% and 35%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 31%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 32%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 0.84 for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.11 for Enppi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 32%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghazl El Mehalla | 2 | 50% | 0% | 0% |
| Enppi | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Ghazl El Mehalla season stats · Enppi season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.