Toppserien (W) · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Our pre-match rating was 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Røa W at 38%, the draw at 30% and Lyn W at 33%, from expected goals of 1.12 and 1.02.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 49% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 51% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Røa W 3.50, draw 3.60, Lyn W 1.80.
The league sets the starting point. Toppserien (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Røa W have 6 in 13 this season (1 of 6 at home), Lyn W 6 in 13 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 52% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.12 for Røa W and 1.02 for Lyn W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Røa W season stats · Lyn W season stats · Toppserien (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.