Superettan · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts GIF Sundsvall at 28%, the draw at 26% and Norrby IF at 46%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.48.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 53% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 47% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 55% | 57% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.80, draw 3.25, Norrby IF 2.20.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. GIF Sundsvall have 12 in 20 this season (8 of 10 at home), Norrby IF 9 in 20 (3 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.1 for GIF Sundsvall and 1.48 for Norrby IF. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIF Sundsvall | 20 | 60% | 35% | 45% |
| Norrby IF | 20 | 45% | 35% | 65% |
More: GIF Sundsvall season stats · Norrby IF season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.