Liga Pro · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 36% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Emelec at 42%, the draw at 31% and Leones del Norte at 28%, from expected goals of 1.13 and 0.86.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Emelec have 5 in 25 this season (3 of 13 at home), Leones del Norte 9 in 26 (6 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 31% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.13 for Emelec and 0.86 for Leones del Norte. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 25 | 20% | 8% | 40% |
| Leones del Norte | 26 | 35% | 12% | 46% |
More: Emelec season stats · Leones del Norte season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.