Premier League · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts AL Masry at 24%, the draw at 22% and Pyramids FC at 54%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.9.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 47% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 53% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 48% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: AL Masry 3.50, draw 2.88, Pyramids FC 2.10.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AL Masry have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Pyramids FC 1 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 34% and 37%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 41% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.2 for AL Masry and 1.9 for Pyramids FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Masry | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Pyramids FC | 2 | 50% | 0% | 0% |
More: AL Masry season stats · Pyramids FC season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.