Promotion League · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Promotion League average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Zürich II at 35%, the draw at 23% and FC Schaffhausen at 43%, from expected goals of 1.59 and 1.79.
The league sets the starting point. Promotion League has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Zürich II have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 2 at home), FC Schaffhausen 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 74%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 65% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.59 for Zürich II and 1.79 for FC Schaffhausen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zürich II | 3 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| FC Schaffhausen | 3 | 100% | 33% | 67% |
More: Zürich II season stats · FC Schaffhausen season stats · Promotion League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.