Ranheim v ODD Ballklubb — prediction, stats and goal analysis

1. Division · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 75% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Ranheim at 51%, the draw at 19% and ODD Ballklubb at 30%, from expected goals of 2.48 and 1.91.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Ranheim have 17 in 18 this season (9 of 10 at home), ODD Ballklubb 14 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 79% and 72%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 73%.

Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 73%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 2.48 for Ranheim and 1.91 for ODD Ballklubb. Folding in 30% of that view gives 75%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Ranheim season stats · ODD Ballklubb season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.