1. Division · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 72% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Moss at 43%, the draw at 21% and Strommen at 36%, from expected goals of 2.02 and 1.83.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Moss have 16 in 18 this season (6 of 8 at home), Strommen 13 in 18 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 75% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.02 for Moss and 1.83 for Strommen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Moss season stats · Strommen season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.