Liga de Expansión · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 02:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga de Expansión average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Mineros de Zacatecas at 67%, the draw at 18% and CDS Tampico Madero at 16%, from expected goals of 2.47 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. Liga de Expansión has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mineros de Zacatecas have 4 in 4 this season (3 of 3 at home), CDS Tampico Madero 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 60% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 2.47 for Mineros de Zacatecas and 1.13 for CDS Tampico Madero. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 4 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| CDS Tampico Madero | 4 | 50% | 25% | 0% |
More: Mineros de Zacatecas season stats · CDS Tampico Madero season stats · Liga de Expansión table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.