Lusitano Évora 1911 v CF Os Belenenses — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Taça de Portugal · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, though we make no pick on this fixture — see below. The Taça de Portugal average is 44%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Lusitano Évora 1911 at 39%, the draw at 28% and CF Os Belenenses at 33%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.08.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Taça de Portugal has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Lusitano Évora 1911 have 0 in 0 this season, CF Os Belenenses 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 44%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Lusitano Évora 1911 and 1.08 for CF Os Belenenses. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.

Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 41%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Things worth knowing

• One or both sides play in a league we do not yet cover, so this rating leans on league averages and should be treated with caution.
• Lusitano Évora 1911 return after a break of about 35 weeks — our research found form streaks reset over long lay-offs.
• CF Os Belenenses return after a break of about 13 weeks.
• We make no goals pick on this fixture: European qualifier rounds graded a coin flip across 1,150 historical games, and pre-season cup ties leave the model working from league averages.

More: CF Os Belenenses season stats · Taça de Portugal table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.