B36 Torshavn v B68 — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Meistaradeildin · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistaradeildin average is 68%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts B36 Torshavn at 66%, the draw at 21% and B68 at 13%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 0.74.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Meistaradeildin has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. B36 Torshavn have 10 in 20 this season (3 of 9 at home), B68 10 in 19 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 59%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.

Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.94 for B36 Torshavn and 0.74 for B68. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: B36 Torshavn season stats · B68 season stats · Meistaradeildin table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.