Aarhus Fremad v Vejle — prediction, stats and goal analysis

1. Division · Sunday, 30 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Division average is 55%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Aarhus Fremad at 34%, the draw at 24% and Vejle at 42%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.65.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Aarhus Fremad have 3 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Vejle 4 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 58%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 57%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Aarhus Fremad and 1.65 for Vejle. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Aarhus Fremad season stats · Vejle season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.