Vikingur Olafsiik v Haukar — prediction, stats and goal analysis

2. Deild · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 70% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Vikingur Olafsiik at 38%, the draw at 22% and Haukar at 40%, from expected goals of 1.71 and 1.77.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Vikingur Olafsiik have 11 in 18 this season (6 of 9 at home), Haukar 16 in 18 (8 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 78%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.

Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 70%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.71 for Vikingur Olafsiik and 1.77 for Haukar. Folding in 30% of that view gives 70%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Vikingur Olafsiik season stats · Haukar season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.