Super League · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Tianjin Teda at 47%, the draw at 25% and Qingdao Youth Island at 28%, from expected goals of 1.62 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tianjin Teda have 12 in 22 this season (8 of 11 at home), Qingdao Youth Island 8 in 23 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.62 for Tianjin Teda and 1.2 for Qingdao Youth Island. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tianjin Teda | 22 | 55% | 23% | 59% |
| Qingdao Youth Island | 23 | 35% | 26% | 61% |
More: Tianjin Teda season stats · Qingdao Youth Island season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.