Liga Pro · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 36% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 43%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | 85% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Tecnico Universitario at 40%, the draw at 32% and Deportivo Cuenca at 29%, from expected goals of 1.05 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tecnico Universitario have 11 in 25 this season (5 of 12 at home), Deportivo Cuenca 8 in 25 (2 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 1.05 for Tecnico Universitario and 0.84 for Deportivo Cuenca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecnico Universitario | 25 | 44% | 8% | 36% |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 25 | 32% | 12% | 44% |
More: Tecnico Universitario season stats · Deportivo Cuenca season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.