2. Deild · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 75% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 29% | Yes |
The result model puts Selfoss at 72%, the draw at 15% and Magni at 14%, from expected goals of 2.99 and 1.3.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Selfoss have 15 in 18 this season (9 of 9 at home), Magni 12 in 18 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 78% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.99 for Selfoss and 1.3 for Magni. Folding in 30% of that view gives 75%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Selfoss season stats · Magni season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.