1. SNL · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. SNL average is 63%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Radomlje at 33%, the draw at 27% and Olimpija Ljubljana at 40%, from expected goals of 1.17 and 1.32.
The league sets the starting point. 1. SNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 63% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Radomlje have 4 in 5 this season (2 of 3 at home), Olimpija Ljubljana 0 in 5 (0 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 74% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.17 for Radomlje and 1.32 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje | 5 | 80% | 60% | 80% |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 5 | 0% | 0% | 20% |
More: Radomlje season stats · Olimpija Ljubljana season stats · 1. SNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.