Super League · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 10:00. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Qingdao Jonoon at 47%, the draw at 23% and Wuhan Three Towns at 31%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 1.44.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Qingdao Jonoon have 13 in 23 this season (5 of 11 at home), Wuhan Three Towns 11 in 21 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.44 for Wuhan Three Towns. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Jonoon | 23 | 57% | 52% | 65% |
| Wuhan Three Towns | 21 | 52% | 48% | 67% |
More: Qingdao Jonoon season stats · Wuhan Three Towns season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.