Leiknir R. v Njardvik — prediction, stats and goal analysis

1. Deild · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Deild average is 70%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Leiknir R. at 49%, the draw at 23% and Njardvik at 28%, from expected goals of 1.78 and 1.28.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Leiknir R. have 12 in 19 this season (7 of 10 at home), Njardvik 10 in 19 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 61%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 66%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.78 for Leiknir R. and 1.28 for Njardvik. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Leiknir R. season stats · Njardvik season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.