Superettan · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 12:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Superettan average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Landskrona BoIS at 37%, the draw at 28% and Ostersunds FK at 36%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. Superettan has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Landskrona BoIS have 8 in 19 this season (3 of 9 at home), Ostersunds FK 8 in 19 (4 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Landskrona BoIS and 1.19 for Ostersunds FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landskrona BoIS | 19 | 42% | 21% | 53% |
| Ostersunds FK | 19 | 42% | 26% | 63% |
More: Landskrona BoIS season stats · Ostersunds FK season stats · Superettan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.