Kormákur / Hvöt v Fjardabyggd / Leiknir — prediction, stats and goal analysis

2. Deild · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 76% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Kormákur / Hvöt at 58%, the draw at 18% and Fjardabyggd / Leiknir at 24%, from expected goals of 2.59 and 1.66.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Kormákur / Hvöt have 11 in 18 this season (7 of 9 at home), Fjardabyggd / Leiknir 15 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 75%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.

Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 74%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.59 for Kormákur / Hvöt and 1.66 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 76%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Kormákur / Hvöt season stats · Fjardabyggd / Leiknir season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.