Super League · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Henan Jianye at 47%, the draw at 28% and Chongqing Tongliang Long at 25%, from expected goals of 1.34 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Henan Jianye have 13 in 22 this season (5 of 11 at home), Chongqing Tongliang Long 8 in 23 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.34 for Henan Jianye and 0.88 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Jianye | 22 | 59% | 14% | 59% |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 23 | 35% | 26% | 52% |
More: Henan Jianye season stats · Chongqing Tongliang Long season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.