Liga Pro · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 22:00. Our rating makes this 30% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 43%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts Guayaquil City FC at 28%, the draw at 34% and LDU de Quito at 38%, from expected goals of 0.76 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Guayaquil City FC have 8 in 25 this season (4 of 13 at home), LDU de Quito 6 in 25 (3 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 25%, from expected goals of 0.76 for Guayaquil City FC and 0.95 for LDU de Quito. Folding in 30% of that view gives 30%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guayaquil City FC | 25 | 32% | 20% | 44% |
| LDU de Quito | 25 | 24% | 4% | 32% |
More: Guayaquil City FC season stats · LDU de Quito season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.