Guarani Campinas v Brusque — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Serie C · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Guarani Campinas at 52%, the draw at 25% and Brusque at 23%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 0.96.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Guarani Campinas have 9 in 25 this season (5 of 13 at home), Brusque 9 in 17 (3 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 41%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.

Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Guarani Campinas and 0.96 for Brusque. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Guarani Campinas season stats · Brusque season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.