Dalvík / Reynir v KFG — prediction, stats and goal analysis

2. Deild · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Deild average is 69%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Dalvík / Reynir at 53%, the draw at 22% and KFG at 25%, from expected goals of 1.92 and 1.26.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 2. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 69% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Dalvík / Reynir have 10 in 18 this season (3 of 9 at home), KFG 15 in 18 (7 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 75%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.

Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.92 for Dalvík / Reynir and 1.26 for KFG. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Dalvík / Reynir season stats · KFG season stats · 2. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.