Super League · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 12:35. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 61%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Chengdu Better City at 63%, the draw at 20% and Shenyang Urban at 17%, from expected goals of 2.1 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chengdu Better City have 12 in 23 this season (6 of 11 at home), Shenyang Urban 14 in 22 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 2.1 for Chengdu Better City and 0.98 for Shenyang Urban. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chengdu Better City | 23 | 52% | 35% | 61% |
| Shenyang Urban | 22 | 64% | 36% | 55% |
More: Chengdu Better City season stats · Shenyang Urban season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.