Serie C · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 83% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Caxias at 40%, the draw at 28% and Inter De Limeira at 32%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Caxias have 6 in 17 this season (4 of 9 at home), Inter De Limeira 9 in 17 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Caxias and 1.11 for Inter De Limeira. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caxias | 17 | 35% | 0% | 53% |
| Inter De Limeira | 17 | 53% | 24% | 59% |
More: Caxias season stats · Inter De Limeira season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.