Czech Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Czech Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Bohemians 1905 at 36%, the draw at 25% and Mlada Boleslav at 39%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.44.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bohemians 1905 have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Mlada Boleslav 2 in 4 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Bohemians 1905 and 1.44 for Mlada Boleslav. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians 1905 | 3 | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Mlada Boleslav | 4 | 50% | 50% | 75% |
More: Bohemians 1905 season stats · Mlada Boleslav season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.