Czech Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Czech Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Baník Ostrava at 31%, the draw at 25% and Sigma Olomouc at 44%, from expected goals of 1.27 and 1.57.
The league sets the starting point. Czech Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Baník Ostrava have 2 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Sigma Olomouc 4 in 4 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 39% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.27 for Baník Ostrava and 1.57 for Sigma Olomouc. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava | 4 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Sigma Olomouc | 4 | 100% | 25% | 100% |
More: Baník Ostrava season stats · Sigma Olomouc season stats · Czech Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.