Serie C · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 41% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie C average is 35%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 84% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Amazonas at 48%, the draw at 27% and Ypiranga-RS at 25%, from expected goals of 1.41 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. Serie C has produced over 2.5 goals in 35% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Amazonas have 7 in 17 this season (3 of 9 at home), Ypiranga-RS 10 in 17 (7 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.41 for Amazonas and 0.94 for Ypiranga-RS. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazonas | 17 | 41% | 12% | 29% |
| Ypiranga-RS | 17 | 59% | 18% | 65% |
More: Amazonas season stats · Ypiranga-RS season stats · Serie C table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.