1. Deild · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 20:15. Our rating makes this 68% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Deild average is 70%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Throttur Reykjavik at 76%, the draw at 14% and Ægir at 10%, from expected goals of 2.79 and 0.95.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Deild has produced over 2.5 goals in 70% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Throttur Reykjavik have 10 in 19 this season (4 of 10 at home), Ægir 14 in 19 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.79 for Throttur Reykjavik and 0.95 for Ægir. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Throttur Reykjavik | 19 | 53% | 42% | 68% |
| Ægir | 19 | 74% | 53% | 63% |
More: Throttur Reykjavik season stats · Ægir season stats · 1. Deild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.