Mushuc Runa SC v Delfin SC — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Liga Pro · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 21:30. Our rating makes this 40% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Pro average is 43%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Mushuc Runa SC at 48%, the draw at 29% and Delfin SC at 23%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 0.76.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Liga Pro has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Mushuc Runa SC have 14 in 25 this season (5 of 13 at home), Delfin SC 7 in 25 (5 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 37%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 33%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Mushuc Runa SC and 0.76 for Delfin SC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Mushuc Runa SC season stats · Delfin SC season stats · Liga Pro table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.